Everyone loves a good treasure story.
This week’s comes from Saxony, Germany where UK-based Neptune Energy claims to have uncovered one of the world’s largest lithium deposits.
Forty-three million tons of the stuff. Enough to make any EV executive choke on their oat latte.
On paper, that’s massive.
Some outlets even called it a “$1 trillion find.”
Enough lithium to power 800,000 electric vehicles. The beginning of the end for Europe’s dependence on China’s CATL batteries.
But… let’s breathe for a second. And look at the facts.
The Facts
UK company Neptune Energy (better known for drilling gas) has been running pilot projects in the Altmark region of Saxony, an area once used for natural gas extraction.
They’re not digging giant pits. Instead, they’re using direct lithium extraction (DLE) from underground brine. The salty water left over from gas fields.
Their early tests suggest the brine contains 43 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). If even a fraction is recoverable, it could be a very big deal for Europe’s energy independence.
Neptune’s German CEO, Andreas Scheck, said the discovery could “contribute significantly to the German and European supply market for the critical raw material lithium.”
Translation: we want in on the battery gold rush.
Sure, they do.
Why This Matters
Right now, Europe imports nearly all its lithium.
Mostly from South America and Australia, and much of it processed in China. So any domestic source sounds like salvation for carmakers like BMW, Mercedes, and Volkswagen, who depend heavily on Chinese suppliers like CATL.
But here’s the thing:
Having a “resource” and having a mine are two very different things.
This is still early-stage exploration. Neptune’s in pilot mode, testing whether DLE can pull lithium out efficiently and sustainably.
The company has permits, lab results, and a lot of optimism but not yet commercial output.
Even the 43 million-ton figure is what’s called an estimated resource, not a proven reserve.
The Billion-Dollar Hype Machine
So, where did that $1 trillion number come from?
Honestly, from the same place as most viral headlines: nowhere solid. There’s no public valuation report or verified pricing model behind it.
If you take today’s lithium carbonate price and multiply it by 43 million tons, you get a trillion-ish number. That’s where it comes from. Likely.
And about those 800,000 EVs?
Other estimates say the project could eventually supply lithium for around 500,000 electric cars per year, not 800,000.
Still impressive, but a lot less.
The Bigger Picture
If this project actually scales, it could help Germany reduce its dependency on imports and strengthen the EU’s position in the battery race.
That’s the dream.
But the road from discovery to production is not easy.
Regulatory delays, environmental assessments, and local pushback, especially in Germany, where environmental reviews can take longer than some marriages. We’re the best at bureaucracy.
Direct Lithium Extraction is also new tech.
It’s cleaner than traditional mining, but it’s not plug-and-play. It requires massive water handling, energy inputs, and years of optimization.
So, if it comes, the lithium boom won’t happen in 2026. More like the early 2030s… if all goes well.
The Bottom Line
It’s a great headline.
And for what it’s worth, Neptune’s discovery is real, promising, and worth watching.
But it also has a lot of ifs.
Europe absolutely needs its own lithium supply. That part’s true. But this isn’t the end of Chinese battery dominance, I fear.
It might be the beginning of Germany finally joining the game, though.
If they can pull it off, great. If not, it’s another shiny press release buried under Europe’s green ambitions.
Either way, it’s wild to think that beneath the fields of Saxony, there’s a potential $1 trillion worth of battery juice.
Imagine what’s hidden elsewhere.